The flu that huffs and puffs but can't blow the house down

Remember Y2K? Ten years later it's Swine2K

Swine2K

Remember Y2K?

There we were on New Year’s Eve 10 years ago, huddled around our stockpiles of canned goods and duct tape, waiting for midnight in Sydney, Australia. If the whole grid was going to go down in the first moments of 2000, Sydney was ground zero.

Aaaaaaand…nothing.

Well, not exactly. Tech guys the world over were scrambling to solve minor computer problems. But jets didn’t fall from the sky, nukes didn’t spontaneously launch, the lights stayed on, and every bowl game kicked off on schedule. All was right with the world.

So here we are 10 years later and…say…weren’t we supposed to be in the middle of a dreadful pandemic right about now?

Yep. The season of swine flu “panic” ended the decade just as it began – with a surge of fear, then a fizzle. Much ado about nada.

If only…

That’s what CDC officials must be muttering into their beers.

IF ONLY…those millions of doses had arrived on time. And IF ONLY…millions of Americans had lined up to get their shots and every single dose of the vaccine had been used by Thanksgiving. Then the CDC guys could have pointed to the scant H1N1 outbreak and claimed the vaccine worked beautifully.

“See! We told you the vaccine was effective! It saved untold thousands of lives! Oh no no…don’t thank us. We were only doing our job.”

Yeah, they could have been heroes. If only…

As it is, the whole situation just appears more comical every day.

For instance, a recent Reuters Health report offers unintended humor. The article starts off with this: “Swine flu continues to wane across the United States.” And that claim is backed up with this news: “The CDC said just over 20 percent of specimens sent for testing from patients with flu-like illness were positive for H1N1 swine flu, meaning that 80 percent of patients had something else.”

Then, in the very next paragraph, we get this: “Swine flu continues to dominate, with 99 percent of flu cases being due to the H1N1 strain.”

Uh…how’s that again? That’s some powerful flu! It went from 20-something percent to a whopping 99 percent in just two paragraphs!

WHO hangs tough

Meanwhile, Tamiflu – that other mainstream defense against H1N1 – is also going off the rails.

Recently, HealthDay News reported on a review of 20 clinical trials of Tamiflu. The finding: There’s no evidence that the drug prevents pneumonia or other complications in otherwise healthy flu patients.

D’oh!

As with the H1N1 vaccine, many governments have spent millions to stockpile Tamiflu, bracing for the ravages of H1N1. And that’s why a World Health Organization antivirals expert had to hang tough, telling HealthDay, “This will not change our (Tamiflu) guidelines.”

But then, just two days later, Reuters Health reported this: “The World Health Organization on Friday endorsed findings that there is no clear evidence that the antiviral Tamiflu prevents complications such as pneumonia in otherwise healthy people with seasonal flu.”

D’oh!

So what’s an international agency with egg on its face to do? Never fear, WHO officials continue to recommend Tamiflu use in patients at risk of complications.

Hey, when you’ve advised government officials all over the world to bet millions on a horse, you have to keep cheering for that horse, even when it limps across the finish line – in a tie for last place with the H1N1 vaccine.

To Your Good Health,

Jenny Thompson

Sources:
“Swine Flu Still Down in US But 198 children Dead” Maggie Fox, Reuters Health, 11/30/09, reutershealth.com
“Review Questions Tamiflu’s Effectiveness” HealthDay News, 12/8/09, healthday.com
“WHO Backs Findings on Tamiflu for Seasonal Flu” Stephanie Nebehay, Reuters Health, 12/11/09, reutershealth.com