Pie in the sky

You may have heard about three aspirin studies that hit the mainstream media like a feel-good double rainbow.

I’ve got to admit, it’s an appealing fantasy…

Let’s pretend a simple, daily aspirin can prevent cancer. But don’t stop there. Let’s also pretend that if you get cancer, aspirin keeps it from spreading.

According to the lead researcher, that’s what “seems” to happen.

Seems? Does that sound a little flimsy to you?

No matter. There are many people who will innocently believe this stuff. Unfortunately, they might take action and end up with no benefits and plenty of harm.

Doing the math

This is the kind of junk that TV news people love. They deliver the soundbite — “Aspirin cures cancer!” — then move on. They never actually look at the research behind their blather.

That’s why few, if any, of those talking heads included this disclaimer from HealthDay News… “Latest findings don’t mean people should start popping aspirin every morning, experts stress.”

So, the results suggest we should use aspirin therapy. But the experts say we shouldn’t.

In this case, the experts got it exactly right.

Each of the studies was a meta-analysis, so researchers analyzed a number of different trials to draw broad conclusions. That’s NOT hard evidence.

To get an idea of what an absurd long shot the cancer-preventive-aspirin-miracle is, we can look at another study led by Dr. Peter Rothwell. (He’s the same researcher that led these three new studies.)

Rothwell and colleagues examined eight aspirin trials. They concluded that aspirin reduced cancer deaths. Also, benefits increased the longer aspirin was used.

But a website called “Prescribing Advice for GPs” crunched Rothwell’s numbers. And everything went south.

The number crunching found that if 1,000 people took a daily aspirin for five years, this regimen might prevent about six or seven cancer deaths.

The keyword here is “might.”

But let’s play along. Let’s say aspirin use saves seven lives. That’s wonderful, right? Sure. But there’s a catch.

You’ve got hundreds of people getting no benefit at all. Meanwhile, they’re ALL increasing their risk of gastrointestinal bleeding and potentially fatal hemorrhage. And these risks increase the longer aspirin is used.

And that’s why every aspirin study we’ll ever see will ALWAYS include experts who will warn us not to start popping aspirin every morning.

I’m sure millions heard about these new studies. I hope they also spotted the expert message. This new aspirin “miracle” is strictly pie in the sky.

Sources:
“More Evidence Shows That Daily Aspirin Might Combat Cancer” HealthDay News, 3/20/12, nlm.nih.gov

“Effect of daily aspirin on long-term risk of death due to cancer: analysis of individual patient data from randomised trials” The Lancet, Published online 12/7/10, thelancet.com

“Aspirin for cancer prevention?” Prescribing Advice for GPs, 12/20/10, prescriber.org.uk


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Allan Spreen, M.D.
Dr. Allan Spreen, Chief Medical Advisor

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