One million swine flu patients – but who’s doing the counting?

Model Behavior

Do you know anyone who’s come down with swine flu? Or do you know someone who knows someone with swine flu?

Me neither. But according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, odds are we probably do.

Crunching (and stretching) the numbers

The CDC reports that fewer than 28,000 people in the U.S. have been diagnosed with swine flu. But late last month, a flu surveillance official used “mathematical modeling” to make this estimate: One million Americans now have swine flu.

Not 28,000…one million – thanks to the magic of mathematical modeling. That means that for each diagnosed case, there are more than 35 undiagnosed swine flu patients running around.

That seems kind of high, doesn’t it?

But not when you consider that the estimate was made by a CDC official for a CDC vaccine advisory meeting.

Well, NOW it all makes sense, doesn’t it? After all, if you want to go on a national vaccination spree you can’t get the ball rolling with a measly 28,000 cases. So bring on the mathematical modeling!

So nice, they’ll give it twice

According to the Associated Press, about 115 doses of seasonal flu vaccine are produced each year. But that’s peanuts compared to the 600 million doses of swine flu vaccine the CDC might put on order for next fall.

So who the heck are all these doses for anyway? The population of the U.S. is about 304 million. Maybe the CDC anticipates the U.S. will be getting a lot of visitors dropping by – and we’ll want to share with our guests, right?

Actually there’s a simple explanation for those extra 296 million shots. The AP reports that everyone under the age of 50 may need to get two doses each. And it seems someone at the CDC is under the impression that no one will abstain – apparently EVERYONE is going to happily line up to get a shot (or two).

Keep in mind that when 40 million people in the U.S. were immunized to prevent swine flu in 1976, more than 500 developed Guillain-Barre syndrome – a paralyzing immune system disorder.

And keep in mind that this new swine flu vaccine has not yet been tested in a clinical trial. Efficacy? Unknown. Side effects? Unknown.

Here’s what IS known: Some vaccine manufacturers are going to get very, very rich. No mathematical modeling needed for THAT equation.

Sources:
“U.S. Swine Flu Cases May Have Hit 1 Million” Mike Stobbe, Associated Press, 6/25/09, ap.org
“Swine Flu Shot Campaign Could Involve 600M Doses” Mike Stobbe, Associated Press, 6/26/09, ap.org